Open RAN ‘to reach 15%’ of RAN market in four years
Open RAN revenues will account for around 15% of the overall 2G-5G RAN market by 2026, according to a new estimate from the Dell’Oro group.
The Asia-Pacific region is dominating the open RAN market, says Dell’Oro, and will play a leading role throughout the forecast period, accounting for more than 40% of total 2021-2026 revenues.
“The open RAN movement has come a long way in just a few years, surprising both proponents and sceptics,” said Stefan Pongratz (pictured), Dell’Oro VP and analyst.
“While challenging comparisons will weigh a bit on the market over the short-term, it is unlikely that these divergences between the greenfields and the brownfields will leave lasting imprints on the long-term prospects.”
The company said that its preliminary findings suggest total open RAN revenues “surprised on the upside both in 2020 and during 2021, bolstering the thesis that open RAN is here to stay and the architecture will play an important role before 6G”.
Dell’Oro noted that risks around open RAN projections “remain broadly balanced, though it is worth noting that risks to the downside have increased slightly since the last forecast update”.
However, the shift towards virtualized RAN (vRAN) “is progressing at a slightly slower pace than open RAN”.
Dell’Oro has left its total vRAN projections “mostly unchanged”, with vRAN likely to account for 5-10% of the RAN market by 2026, it said.