Market Trend

Three-year disinvestment cycle to bottom out in 2010

Global capex is forecast to decrease by a maximum of 6% in 2009, with a possible end-of-year bump up potentially lowering the decrease to below 6%, according to Infonetics Research’s 2009 Service Provider Capex, Opex, ARPU and Subscribers report.

The 2009 decrease has been driven by factors such as a weakening US dollar and predicted declines in the value of the Brazilian real and Mexican peso.

A capex plateau was reached in 2008, says the report, ending a five-year investment cycle and signalling the start of a three-year disinvestment cycle that will be less severe than the one that followed the 2000 crash. After disinvestment bottoms out in 2010, a new capex investment cycle will begin in 2011 which will be driven by 3G roll-outs in India, central and Latin America and Africa. It will also be aided by LTE deployments in Australia, Brazil, western Europe, Japan and North America.

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