On February 24, the unexpected severing of three submarine cables—Seacom/TGN-EA, EIG, and AAE-1—led to severe disruptions in internet traffic across East Africa, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia.

This panel discussion at Capacity Middle East 2025 examined the immediate impact of the cuts, how companies rerouted their traffic, and the long-term implications for the industry's resilience.

Speakers

· Paul Brodsky, senior analyst - TELEGEOGRAPHY (moderator)

· Owen Bryant, head of global infrastructure – Vodafone

· Prenesh Padayachee, chief digital officer – SEACOM

· Mohammad Hossein Madadi, MD – QBIC

· Rohitash Bhaskar, head of international infrastructure - Batelco

Padayachee highlighted the urgency of diagnosing the situation and quickly restoring services. "It was a case of initially figuring out what had gone wrong and how to recover from that. We were fortunate to have capacity running both north and south, enabling us to reroute traffic destined for Europe back to South Africa and then up the west coast of Africa. Naturally, there was increased latency, but we had the capability to mitigate major disruptions."

The impact of increased latency was particularly pronounced for businesses relying on cloud services. Padayachee admitted, "This increased latency caused a performance hit for those organisations... it was an eye-opener for us to realise how dependent we are on the Red Sea channels."

Bhaskar described how Batelco managed to maintain connectivity due to existing redundancy measures. "Thankfully, Batelco had some redundant capacity on cables that were unaffected. We also had some capacity on Amir-2, the alternate Middle East to Eastern Europe route, which ensured a smooth transition for our customers."

For Vodafone, Bryant noted that their proactive resilience planning ensured there were no service disruptions. "We had built resilient networks. We had no traffic incidents. The enterprise business and local markets saw no impact. However, internally, we recognised the seriousness of the incident and took corrective actions. Having dealt with a similar incident a year prior, we had already increased resilience on the Red Sea route."

Madadi shared a different perspective, highlighting the importance of alternative connectivity solutions. "I was notified the same evening, not because I was a member of those cables, but because people were searching for alternative capacity. The challenge for the market was to find sustainable solutions. Operators must consider diversifying beyond the Red Sea and Suez Canal routes."

Brodsky provided a broader industry perspective, pointing out that submarine cable outages are not uncommon. "On average, the ICPC reports around 199 incidents per year. The issue here is the heavy concentration of cables in the southern Red Sea, which creates a significant vulnerability. Given the ongoing geopolitical instability in the region, repairs that should take weeks have dragged on for months."

The panellists explored potential alternatives to reliance on the Red Sea. Padayachee identified two possible solutions: "One alternative is to cut across Africa, routing traffic from the east coast to the west coast and then onward to Europe or the US. The second would be to go across the Middle East, but terrestrial networks are much more expensive to run due to issues such as vandalism and power infrastructure challenges."

Bhaskar noted the congestion in critical maritime straits and the necessity for more terrestrial fibre networks. "When these events occur, we realise how important permitting and infrastructure investment are. The industry is actively looking for sustainable alternative routes, and Batelco is working on creative solutions in partnership with other stakeholders."

Bryant detailed Vodafone’s proactive approach: "We implemented additional resilience by routing traffic around the Horn of Africa and establishing a new route from Qatar to Sofia via Iraq and Turkey. Initially, this was an expensive and untested option, but it proved to be far more reliable than expected. Today, around a third of our Middle East traffic is routed through Iraq instead of the Red Sea."

Madadi reinforced the need for a paradigm shift. "Why do we assume that all traffic must go to Europe? If internet hubs were better distributed globally, the impact of Red Sea outages would be minimised. Strengthening regional data centres and internet exchanges is critical to reducing dependence on specific routes."

Brodsky questioned whether terrestrial fibre networks could truly accommodate the same capacity as submarine cables. "We are talking about hundreds of terabits of traffic passing through the Red Sea. Can terrestrial routes through Iraq and Turkey realistically handle that?"

Bryant acknowledged the challenges but remained optimistic. "It’s coming—it just takes time. High-fibre-count routes need to be built across Saudi Arabia and Iraq. However, terrestrial systems are more politically vulnerable than submarine cables. Vodafone previously invested in the IPEC route from Oman to Frankfurt, which became non-viable due to geopolitical shifts in Iran and Ukraine."

Bhaskar echoed the importance of economy of scale in making terrestrial routes viable. "We saw this with Amir-1 and Amir-2. As demand increased, the infrastructure scaled up. If enough investment is directed towards terrestrial fibre, it can become a legitimate alternative. However, multiple governments must align to allow dark fibre sales and long-haul connections."

Madadi concluded that terrestrial networks could scale quickly with the right investment. "If even a portion of the attention and funding given to subsea cables were directed towards terrestrial networks, we would see significant improvements in connectivity resilience."

Brodsky emphasised the importance of government cooperation. "At the end of the day, if countries do not allow long-haul fibre sales across borders, efficiency of scale will never be achieved. This is a commercial challenge, but also a political one."

The panellists agreed that redundancy planning must evolve beyond traditional cable routes. Whether through expanded terrestrial networks, new submarine corridors, or better regional internet hubs, the industry must diversify to prevent future large-scale outages.

The panellists echoed the industry-wide view that the Red Sea cable cuts served as a wake-up call for the industry. While companies like Vodafone and Batelco managed to mitigate disruptions through existing redundancies, the incident exposed deep vulnerabilities in global internet infrastructure.

The discussion at Capacity Middle East underscored the need for diversified connectivity, increased investment in terrestrial networks, and better distribution of data centres worldwide. As stakeholders collaborate on long-term solutions, resilience and adaptability will be key to ensuring global connectivity remains robust in the face of future disruptions.